RC Campanha // Capability File
SYS ONLINE · AVAILABLE
RC-CF-2026.07 // Independent Researcher · Catastrophe & Planetary Risk

Richard
Campanha

Probabilistic Risk Engineering · Geospatial Decision Systems

Sixteen years modeling natural and engineered hazards for the global (re)insurance market — building the geospatial decision systems capital gets allocated against. Founder of GeoRisk and CataclysmGuide; NASA grant peer reviewer; longstanding research interest in decision support for crewed planetary operations.

Contact Me Review Capabilities
NASA · Grant Peer Reviewer · since 2017 NASA Constellation CE&R · 2005 SAM.gov · Registered InfraGard · since 2010 USCG Aux · Veteran
Personnel FileRC // 01
Principal
Richard Campanha
Designation
Independent Researcher
Location
London, UK
Citizenship
Verifiable on request
Education
B.Sc. MathematicsFlorida International University · concentrations in Physics, Astronomy
Postgraduate
Oxford · ADDSAAdvanced Diploma in Data & Systems Analysis · 2012–2013 · Distinction · Sheldonian 2014
In Progress
Georgia Tech · M.Sc. Computer ScienceOMSCS · partially completed · currently on hold
Internship
MIT · 2005NASA Constellation CE&R · MIT–Draper Labs project · Presidential Vision for Space Exploration
Fellowship
McNair Research Fellow · 2006
IP Waiver
MIT TLO · Case 19973MIT rights to ISRU simulator waived to inventors · Oct 2017
Federal Role
NASA Grant Peer Reviewersince 2017 · programme under NDA
Affiliations
InfraGard · FIR · IFoAInfraGard incl. NDRC · FIR is separate NPO
SAM.gov
Registered
Engagement
OTA · Direct contract · PI · Consulting
Availability
Remote · CONUS travelclearance sponsorship welcome
Seeking
NASA PRA subcontract · DOE grid resilience · Space systems teaming
16y
CAT Modeling & Systems
10y
Federal Service & Engagement
USCG Aux · InfraGard · NDRC
9y
NASA Grant Peer Reviewer
1x
NASA CER
Presidential Vision for Space Exploration
Method Alignment // NASA PRA · SP-2011-3421 DOE CESER DHS · CISA AFRL / DARPA Basic Research FEMA · NOAA
[ 01 ] Operating Thesis

One methodology. Every domain.

The common thread across 20 years of work is one methodological commitment: quantifying low-probability, high-consequence outcomes on portfolios of assets and lives under uncertainty. In reinsurance, that means EP curves and stochastic loss models. In grid resilience, it means black-sky scenario quantification. In cyber risk, it means systemic loss aggregation. In space systems, it means mission risk assessment and crew decision support under communications latency. The mathematics is agnostic to the application domain — and that gives me depth and breadth in my work. — Probabilistic Risk Engineering · A Multi-Domain Practice

[ 02 ] Capability Matrix

Where civilian risk engineering meets defense and planetary capability.

Sixteen years of production probabilistic risk work across the senior tier of the global market — the same methods NASA formalises as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) under NASA/SP-2011-3421. The same mathematics DOD uses for installation resilience. The same frameworks DOE applies to grid hardening. The domain changes. The core methodology doesn't.

CAT ModelingPRA · Production

Probabilistic Hazard Modeling

Tropical cyclone, severe convective storm, flood, wildfire, and earthquake modeling at portfolio scale. Sixteen years of production work across the senior tier of the global market — world's largest publicly traded P&C insurer, top-5 global reinsurer, and industry-leading CAT modeling vendors. The EP curve methodology underpinning CAT modeling is functionally equivalent to the Probabilistic Risk Assessment framework in NASA/SP-2011-3421 — scenario development, initiating event quantification, uncertainty analysis, and decision support across system life-cycle phases.

GeospatialReal-Time

Real-Time Hazard Intelligence

Live NOAA event ingestion, geospatial overlay against arbitrary asset portfolios, automated exposure quantification. GeoRisk is the operational reference architecture; applicable to installation resilience, energy grid hardening, and tactical situational awareness under DOE, DHS, and DOD authorities.

Grid ResilienceBlack-Sky

HEMP & Power-Grid Risk Modeling

Catastrophe-style modeling of US power-grid exposure to high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) and other black-sky threat scenarios — Fortran simulation engine paired with a modern map-based UI for decision support. Developed in collaboration with InfraGard (including the National Disaster Resilience Center) and the Foundation for Infrastructure Resilience. Aligned with DOE CESER, EPRI, and national-laboratory grid-security programs.

Cyber CATFramework

Operational Cyber Risk Modeling

Led the workstream on Operational Cyber Risk for the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) in 2020, authoring a cyber catastrophe modeling framework for the UK actuarial profession. Direct relevance to CISA, DHS, and DOD cyber resilience programs that increasingly use catastrophe-modeling methodologies for systemic cyber risk.

PlanetaryResearch Interest

Decision Support for Crewed Planetary Operations

Longstanding research interest in decision systems for Mars and lunar surface crews — risk management at distances where Earth-loop communication is infeasible. Builds on prior NASA Constellation-era ISRU work (MIT TLO Case 19973). A research interest available to be activated through the right programme; not a current funded line.

AerospaceCleared IP

In-Situ Resource Utilization Modeling

MATLAB simulator for Martian ISRU propellant plants — Sabatier, RWGS, solid-oxide electrolysis, and hybrid pathways with enthalpy accounting and TRL-normalized comparison — developed during a 2005 MIT internship on the MIT–Draper Labs NASA Constellation CE&R project under the Presidential Vision for Space Exploration. Multi-contractor effort spanning MIT, Draper, Lockheed, Paragon, and other defense partners. MIT rights waived to the inventors by MIT TLO (Case 19973), October 2017. Full program detail ↓

SoftwareFull-Stack

Production Geospatial Software

End-to-end design and build of GeoRisk: ingestion pipelines, spatial joins at scale, web rendering, underwriter-grade UX. Demonstrated capability to ship deployable systems, not prototypes — the differentiator most SBIR Phase II reviewers explicitly look for.

MathematicsFoundational

Differential Geometry · Spinor Methods

Active research extending undergraduate spinor / minimal-surface results toward Dirac-equation formulations. Foundational mathematics with applications in geometric mechanics, gauge theory, and theoretical propulsion physics relevant to AFRL and DARPA basic-research portfolios.

Peer ReviewFederal

NASA Grant Peer Review

Active NASA grant peer reviewer since 2017 (specific programme under NDA). Working knowledge of federal review criteria, mission-directorate priorities, and the proposal evaluation rubrics applied — useful as PI from inside the review process.

[ 03 ] Flagship Program

A real-time hazard intelligence layer for any portfolio of fixed assets.

GeoRisk overlays live NOAA hazard streams against user-uploaded asset portfolios in seconds. Built for (re)insurance underwriters; architected for direct extension into installation resilience, energy infrastructure, and supply-chain risk.

Program // GR-001 ● IN DEV · PRE-LAUNCH

GeoRisk

Live hazard exposure quantification — civilian product, dual-use architecture, asset-agnostic engine.

001

Real-time NOAA ingestion

Continuous pull from authoritative hazard feeds — tropical, severe, flood, fire, marine — with provenance preserved end-to-end.

002

Portfolio-scale spatial joins

User uploads TIV portfolio (CSV, Excel); system performs geospatial intersection against active hazard polygons in seconds.

003

Exposure quantification

Automated TIV-at-risk calculation with breakdown by hazard type, severity, and confidence — underwriter-grade output formats.

004

Hazard- and asset-agnostic core

The engine doesn't know it's for insurance. The same architecture runs against installations, grid assets, supply nodes, or any other portfolio of geolocated assets exposed to natural hazards.

FIG-01 / SYSTEM TOPOLOGY ● IN DEV
HAZARD FEED ASSET PORTFOLIO SPATIAL ENGINE intersection · scoring DECISION REPORT API EXPORT MAP UI
LATENCY < 10s end-to-end
HAZARD CLASSES tropical · severe · flood · fire
PORTFOLIO SIZE up to 500 locations
STATUS pre-launch
[ 04 ] Operational History

Sixteen years of shipping models the world's largest carriers bet capital on.

2017 — PRESENT
NASA · Grant Peer Reviewer
Programme under NDA
Active NASA grant peer reviewer evaluating proposals from inside the agency review process. Direct knowledge of evaluation criteria, mission-directorate priorities, and what separates fundable proposals from the rest. Specific programme name held confidential under NDA.
NASAPeer ReviewFederal
2024 — PRESENT
GeoRisk · CataclysmGuide
Founder · Principal · Architect
Independent build of real-time hazard intelligence platforms. End-to-end ownership: spatial engine, ingestion pipeline, web UI, customer development across MGAs, Lloyd's coverholders, and reinsurance.
FounderGeospatialFull-stack
PRIOR · 16Y
Top-tier (Re)Insurance & CAT Modeling Stack
Catastrophe Risk Specialist · Senior · Manager · Vendor-Side Experience
Production catastrophe modeling across the senior tier of the global market — including the world's largest publicly traded P&C insurer, a top-5 global reinsurer, the industry's leading CAT modeling vendor, and other top-rated specialty carriers and modeling firms. Pricing, accumulation, capital, post-event analytics, and AI-integrated exposure management. Vendor-side experience covers both buy-side and sell-side of the modeling stack — a perspective most CAT modelers never get.
(Re)InsuranceCAT ModelingVendor-Side
2010 — 2014
US Coast Guard Auxiliary
Auxiliarist · Opa Locka Air Station · CEU Volunteer
Four years of uniformed federal service as a USCG Auxiliarist, attached to Air Station Opa Locka. During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon response, built a near-infrared modification to consumer webcams to assist in distinguishing oil slicks from sea kelp on aerial patrols, and completed HAZMAT training in preparation for flight deployment (never deployed operationally). In 2011, volunteered with the Civil Engineering Unit Miami on AutoCAD as-built drafts for the Miami CEU base while remaining attached to Opa Locka. FEMA training and credentialing obtained during the same period.
USCG AuxFEMAHAZMATFederal Service
2010 — PRESENT
InfraGard · EMP-SIG / NDRC · FIR
Critical Infrastructure Partnership · Continuous Membership
InfraGard member since 2010 — FBI-vetted public-private partnership for critical infrastructure protection. Joined the Electromagnetic Special Interest Group (EMP-SIG) in 2012 — the community focused on high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) threats to the US electric grid — which later became the National Disaster Resilience Center (NDRC); served through ~2023. Continued the HEMP / black-sky grid-modeling line with the Foundation for Infrastructure Resilience (FIR) from 2024 onward, pairing a Fortran grid-exposure simulation engine with map-based decision support. Cumulatively, fifteen years of continuous engagement with the US critical-infrastructure protection community.
InfraGardNDRCFIRCritical Infrastructure
2008 — 2012
Arc Consulting · Polymath Engineering
Independent Hardware & Systems R&D
Self-directed engineering practice, publicly documented throughout: Mars orbital terrain reconstruction (Candor Chasma landing sites from MGS MOC data), launch-platform risk modeling for insurers, real-time cyclone tracking from live SSEC satellite mosaics, NIR optical sensing (700–1400 nm camera conversion), FTIR multi-touch hardware with computer-vision tracking, and boundary-layer turbine prototyping. The hardware and geospatial systems record that predates — and feeds directly into — the CAT-modeling career.
GeospatialOptical SensingHardware R&DPublic Record
2006
McNair Research Fellowship
Research Fellow
Postgraduate-track research fellowship awarded following the 2005 MIT internship. The fellowship year supported continued work in advanced mathematics — spinor characterizations of minimal surfaces — supervised by Drs. Grantcharov and Draghici at FIU.
McNairFellowshipMathematics
2005
MIT · NASA Constellation CE&R
Research Intern · Presidential Vision for Space Exploration
Built a MATLAB comparative sizing model for Martian in-situ propellant plants (Sabatier, RWGS, solid-oxide electrolysis, and hybrid pathways) during a 2005 MIT internship on the MIT–Draper Labs NASA Constellation Concept Exploration & Refinement project, the technical backbone of the Presidential Vision for Space Exploration. Structured for validation against Paragon SDC test data; multi-contractor effort spanning MIT, Draper, Lockheed, Paragon, and other defense partners. MIT rights waived to the inventors by MIT TLO (Case No. 19973), October 2017.
NASAConstellationISRUMIT TLO Cleared
CURRENT · ON HOLD
Georgia Institute of Technology
M.Sc. Computer Science (OMSCS) · in progress
Online Master of Science in Computer Science. Coursework partially completed; on hold pending current research and product priorities.
Georgia TechM.Sc. CSIn Progress
2012 — 2014
University of Oxford
Advanced Diploma · Data & Systems Analysis · Distinction
Oxford Department for Continuing Education, ADDSA programme (2012–2013). Graduated with Distinction; ceremony held at the Sheldonian Theatre, April 2014. Postgraduate-level coursework in advanced data architecture and systems analysis.
OxfordADDSADistinction
1999 — 2004
Florida International University
B.Sc. Mathematics · Concentrations: Physics, Astronomy
Enrolled at 16. Coursework in general relativity and differential geometry. Undergraduate research with Drs. Grantcharov and Draghici on spinor characterization of minimal surfaces — work that continued into the 2006 McNair fellowship, with a paper extension in preparation.
MathematicsGRSpinors
[ 05 ] Heritage Program · NASA Constellation

Mars ISRU modeling with a cleared IP trail.

In 2005, comparing Mars in-situ propellant plants was nearly impossible — component-sensitive designs, inconsistent experimental assumptions, splintered TRLs. This MATLAB model made the architectures directly comparable. Two decades later the problem is current again under Artemis-era ISRU programs — and MIT's Technology Licensing Office has formally waived its rights to the invention, leaving the inventors free to carry the work into federal programs.

Program // Constellation CE&R · MIT TLO 19973 ● MIT RIGHTS WAIVED · CODE AVAILABLE

Mars ISRU Simulator

Comparative sizing model for Martian in-situ propellant production plants — developed at MIT on the MIT–Draper Labs NASA Constellation CE&R project under the Presidential Vision for Space Exploration. Official invention title: "MATLAB Simulator for In-Situ Resource Utilization of Rarefied Martian Air" (MIT TLO Case No. 19973).

001

Multi-pathway reaction modeling

Sabatier (CO₂ + 4H₂ → CH₄ + 2H₂O), Reverse Water-Gas Shift, zirconia solid-oxide electrolysis, and hybrid S/E + RWGS architectures — with per-pathway enthalpy accounting across 400–1000 °C operating ranges.

002

TRL-normalized architecture comparison

Directly addressed why ISRU systems couldn't be compared: component-sensitive designs, inconsistent experimental assumptions, and splintered TRLs across the literature. One consistent framework for trade studies.

003

Propellant plant sizing

Linear sizing validated from 0 to 20 kg of daily propellant production — the scale relevant to crewed Mars ascent-vehicle propellant staging.

004

Industry validation pathway

Structured for validation against Paragon SDC in-house test data, and grounded in the AIAA ISRU literature — Sanders, Sridhar, Zubrin, Rice/Gramer — rather than single-source assumptions.

NASA Constellation program emblem NASA Constellation Program
CE&R Participant · 2005
FIG-02 / REACTION PATHWAYS MARS ISRU
MARS ATMOS · CO₂ H₂ FEEDSTOCK SABATIER RWGS SOLID-OXIDE ELECTROLYSIS CH₄ · H₂O · O₂ · CO PLANT SIZING MODEL
PATHWAYS 4 modeled + hybrids
SIZING RANGE 0–20 kg/day propellant
REACTION TEMP 400–1000 °C
IP STATUS MIT TLO 19973 · rights waived Oct 2017
[ 06 ] Active Research & Publications

Research that continues to compound.

Foundational mathematics, applied catastrophe research across natural and cyber hazards, and a longstanding interest in decision support for crewed planetary operations.

Live Product · 2024 — Present

GeoRisk

Real-time NOAA hazard intelligence platform for the (re)insurance market. Live ingestion of tropical, severe, flood, and fire feeds; spatial intersection against uploaded TIV portfolios; underwriter-grade exposure reports. Pre-launch.

Live Product · AI · 2024 — Present

CataclysmGuide

GenAI-powered catastrophe modeling assistant — the future of exposure management and CAT decision support. Built on large language model foundations tuned for the (re)insurance and risk engineering domain.

2025 / In Preparation

Spinor Characterizations of Minimal Surfaces and the Geometric Dirac Equation

Extending undergraduate result that H = 0 iff the ratio of spinor components is anti-holomorphic, toward the matching of geometric Dirac structure to its physical counterpart.

Undergraduate / FIU

Spinor Methods, Gauss-Codazzi-Mainardi, and Conformal Coordinates

Established direct correspondence between minimal-surface condition and spinor-component anti-holomorphy. Supervised by Drs. Grantcharov and Draghici, supported through the McNair fellowship. Origin of the present research line.

IFoA / 2020

Operational Cyber Risk: A Catastrophe Modeling Framework

Led the workstream on Operational Cyber Risk for the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), authoring a cyber catastrophe modeling framework for the UK actuarial profession. Presented at IFoA conferences and circulated as a profession-level reference.

2005 / MIT TLO Case 19973

MATLAB Simulator for In-Situ Resource Utilization of Rarefied Martian Air

Comparative sizing model for Mars propellant plants — Sabatier, RWGS, solid-oxide electrolysis, and hybrid pathways with enthalpy accounting; plant sizing validated 0–20 kg/day. Developed at MIT on the MIT–Draper Labs NASA Constellation CE&R project. MIT rights waived to the inventors (TLO Case No. 19973, October 2017). Code base available for review — full detail in § 05.

[ 07 ] Engineering Record & Open Work

An engineering record that predates the brief.

A documented, public build record going back to 2008 — planetary geospatial reconstruction, real-time hazard tracking, optical sensing hardware, and mechanical R&D — plus contributions to the public technical commons, from foundational mathematics texts to operating systems education.

Planetary Geospatial · 2011 — 2012

Mars Orbital Terrain Reconstruction

3D GIS reconstruction of candidate landing sites at Candor Chasma from Mars Global Surveyor MOC orbital imagery, alongside terrestrial terrain models (Mount Rainier). Early demonstration of the planetary-scale geospatial data handling now central to the practice — documented in the Arc Consulting archive.

Real-Time Hazard Tracking · 2011 — 2012

Cyclone Tracking from Live Satellite Mosaics

Ingested live cloud-cover mosaics from UW–Madison's Space Science and Engineering Center and built a cyclone-tracking model on top — tracking Cyclone Iggy across the South Indian Ocean in January 2012. The direct ancestor of GeoRisk: 13+ years of working authoritative real-time hazard feeds. Archive.

Space Assets · Insurance · 2011 — 2012

Launch-Platform Risk Modeling for Insurers

Modeled physical risk to rocket launch platforms and supporting infrastructure on behalf of insurers — an early crossover between the space domain and the (re)insurance practice, prefiguring the portfolio's space-assets underwriting thread a decade before commercial launch insurance became a growth line.

Optical Sensing Hardware · 2008 — 2010

NIR Sensing & FTIR Multi-Touch Hardware

Converted consumer cameras to the near-infrared band (700–1400 nm) — the same technique later applied operationally on USCG Deepwater Horizon aerial patrols — and built two generations of FTIR multi-touch surfaces: a 66-unit IR LED array on 1-inch centers, UHMW baffles drilled on a 0.0001-inch DRO press, compliant-surface silicone chemistry, and computer-vision touch tracking. Build log.

Mechanical R&D · 2011 — 2012

Boundary-Layer (Tesla) Turbine Prototyping

Design and fabrication of Tesla-type boundary-layer turbine prototypes — disc-pack rotor design through assembly — documented in the Arc Consulting mechanical engineering archive. Hands-on rotating-machinery fabrication complementing the simulation-side practice.

Wikibooks / Abstract Algebra

Contributing Author — rcamp004

Listed contributor to the open-source Abstract Algebra Wikibook — groups, rings, fields, modules. Open mathematics text, used as a free reference by students globally.

OSTEP / Arpaci-Dusseau

Acknowledged Contributor — Operating Systems: Three Easy Pieces

Named in the contributions and thanks of OSTEP, the canonical open operating systems textbook, latest online edition.

Source Archive · 2011 — 2012

Arc Consulting Solutions

Primary archive for the 2011–12 engineering record above — Mars 3D GIS, real-time weather systems, interactive GIS, and mechanical R&D — preserved as originally published.

Source Archive · 2008 — 2011

Polymath Engineering Blog

Primary archive for the 2008–11 hardware record — NIR camera conversion, FTIR multi-touch builds, Orion capsule at the STS-135 NASA TweetUp — the earliest public technical record, preserved as originally published.

[ 08 ] Contact & Engagement

Open to federal engagement.

Available for SBIR/STTR partnerships, OTA engagements, direct federal contracts, and consulting on catastrophe modeling, geospatial decision systems, and critical infrastructure risk. SAM.gov registered, NASA grant peer reviewer, InfraGard member.

Primary Contact
richard@richardcampanha.com
London, UK · responsive within 24 hours
Federal Posture
SAM.gov · Registered
NASA · Grant Peer Reviewer (since 2017)
InfraGard · Member (since 2010)
USCG Aux · Veteran (2010–2014)
Engagement Mechanisms
OTA · Other Transaction Authority
Direct federal contract
Principal Investigator (PI)
Consulting · Advisory

Ready to team on your next program.

Contact Me